Economy

Crude oil futures rise 0.27% on firm global cues

Crude oil futures rise 0.27% on firm global cues

If the prediction is accurate, the USA would become the top oil producer in the world and beat both Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation for the first time since 1975. I believe that OPEC has successfully projected the image of itself in the market as an actor that can effectively play a role in pursuing the rebalance between supply and demand.

"If oil stays at this level, pump price hikes will be nearly inevitable".

Analysts at Commerzbank said they didn't expect him to revoke it.

On January 10, oil prices were supported by API data.

The global benchmark Brent crude oil topped $70 a barrel today despite concerns its rally is running out of steam. More recently it was boosted by extremely cold weather in the USA and China, along with protests in Iran, where the lifting of global sanctions two years ago hasn't provided the relief expected.

The Department of Energy forecast Tuesday that oil output in the United States could top both Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation by the end of 2019.

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Although subject to a complex array of socio-economic, geo-political and technology factors, oil prices are largely determined by expectations of future supply and demand.

Whereas a year ago Exxon and Chevron have invested in United States shale oil, seeking to benefit from the relatively low development cost and the short time it takes to extract commercial oil. In December 2016 was a meeting of oil producers outside the OPEC.

The deal which was originally set to end in March this year has been extended until the end of 2018 by the OPEC as well as a number of participating non-OPEC members like Russian Federation who happens to be one of the biggest producers in the world. Compared to year-ago inventory levels, USA commercial crude oil stockpiles have dropped 8.1%, down almost 95 million barrels. U.S production is expected to soon cross over 10 million barrels per day, or close to Saudi Arabia's levels, largely due to the surging output from shale drillers. So, even though the prices have been growing so far, this is not victory for the OPEC and Russian Federation. So despite these builds, USAC gasoline inventories remain about 1% below the five-year average, the same as back in early November.

Although output has grown considerably faster than forecasts, there is also the possibility that the oil will be more and more hard to extract in the future.

For many economies out there, especially those dependent on the export of crude oil, oil prices have always been a major indicator to monitor. Likewise, there is the possibility of shale oil becoming increasingly hard and costly to extract. By the way, Iran is the OPEC's third-biggest producer of crude oil. In both 2018 and 2019, EIA expects total global production to be slightly greater than global consumption, with U.S. production increasing faster than production in any other country, contributing to modest inventory builds.


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