Economy

Fitch forecasts 7.3% growth for India next year

Fitch forecasts 7.3% growth for India next year

Global credit rating agency Fitch on Thursday projected India's economic growth rate at 7.3% in the next financial year of 2018-19 and at 7.5% in the 2019-20 fiscal, as the Indian economy is showing signs of recovery because the disruptions caused due to demonetisation and goods and services tax (GST) have gradually diminished. The update centers around an assessment of what it will take the country to return to growth rates of 8 percent and higher on a sustained basis.

Highlighting the factors that could propel the growth, the agency in its report noted that 'the influence of one-off policy-related factor which was dragging growth has now waned.' It also observed that the money supply - which choked economic activities in formal and informal sectors after demonetisation - recovered to its pre-demonetisation level in mid-2017 and is now increasing steadily.

"We expect inflation to hover a bit below 5 per cent in 2018 and 2019, in the upper band of the Reserve Banks target", it said. The World Bank report further said that accelerating the growth rate will also require continued integration into global economy.

"The Indian economy is likely to recover from the impact of demonetisation and the GST, and growth should revert slowly to a level consistent with its proximate factors - that is, to about 7.5 per cent a year", the World Bank report had said.

The Narendra Modi government had scrapped high-denomination currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 in November 2016.

India's economic growth rate is estimated at 6.5% in the current fiscal.

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As per this report, India's growth in recent years has been supported by prudent macroeconomic policy: a new inflation targeting framework, energy subsidy reforms, fiscal consolidation, higher quality of public expenditure and a stable balance of payment situation.

The earlier estimate was 6.5 per cent.

The Economic Survey tabled in parliament has projected a growth rate of 7 to 7.5% in the 2018-19 financial year.

"India's long-term growth has become more steady, stable, diversified and resilient".

"This will require continued impetus for structural reforms", Ms Gupta added. "Understanding and relieving the generic, spatial, or sector-specific constraints to investment growth is important", it said.

On the flip side, it said oil prices pose less of a risk for the Indian economy, the expected normalisation of monetary policy by the USA and the other advanced economies are likely to tighten financing conditions.

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