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Monsoon Likely To Be Normal, South May See Less Rain: Weather Agency

Monsoon Likely To Be Normal, South May See Less Rain: Weather Agency

After witnessing below normal Monsoon rains to the tune of 95% a year ago, India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) for the four-month period from June to September.

According to the Skymet report, there is 5 percent chance of excess rain (seasonal rainfall more than 110 percent of long-period average); 20 percent chance of above normal rains (between 105-110 percent of LPA); 55 percent probability of normal rains and 20 percent chance of below normal rains. India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average or LPA of 89 centimetres for the entire four-month season.

The official forecaster, India Meteorological Department, is expected to come up with its monsoon predictions later this month.

Normal rainfall was predicted for most of the country, barring the southern peninsula and major portions of northeast India that are likely to witness "below normal" rainfall this season. As you battle the sweltering heat, private weather forecasting agency, Skymet on Wednesday in its first forecast has said that good rainfall is expected this year. Northwest India is also likely to see normal rains this year.

As per Skymet Weather, above normal rains will benefit the farmers who are expecting good showers in the sowing month of June. "El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years".

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In March, Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS) had said that the 2018 South-West monsoon, from June to September, would end up largely on the "positive side of normal" (normal to above-normal).

July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall to the tune of 97% and 96% of LPA, respectively. Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-Monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving way for intense heat before the onset of Monsoon.

There is a 0 per cent chance of drought that is less than 90 per cent of LPA, the forecaster said.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal.

In terms of geographical risk, it expects that peninsular India and most of North-East India is likely to be at higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season (June-July-August-September). September is also going to have normal rainfall with 101 per cent of LPA. However, normal rains are expected in Gujarat (Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Rajkot, and Surat). If that happens, it is likely to boost the monsoon.

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