Medicine

Elizabeth Warren edges Joe Biden in latest CBS News poll

Elizabeth Warren edges Joe Biden in latest CBS News poll

Elizabeth Warren could split the progressive vote, creating an easy path for former Vice President Joe Biden to win the Democratic presidential primary. CBS's numbers aim to capture the mood of voters in the earliest states, while other national polls are focusing on states that won't vote until late spring.

The growing economic fallout from President Donald Trump's drawn-out trade war with China would appear to be a ready-made opportunity for Democratic presidential contenders seeking to blunt his central 2020 re-election pitch: That he has made the economy great again. While a handful of candidates have dropped out in recent weeks, there are still 20 candidates vying for the nomination. Their second choices offer some clues, and the latest data indicate that Warren's base of support has a lot of room to grow, even more than it has already. It is hard to be the front-runner if you lose the first two, let alone three, contests. This, of course, plays into Biden's argument about being the most electable Democrat overall, something that seems to be powering his advantage in the primary given Democratic voters are prizing electability more than usual. Warren now has a slight edge, with 26% of voters choosing her compared to Biden's 25%.

Warren will come across as more ambitious in her plans for the country, with a specific, solution-oriented approach, and confident demeanor.

An August poll released by the Pew Research Centre showed 60% of Americans had a negative view of China, up from 47% in 2018, a sign that Trump's China-bashing is having an effect.

Furthermore, Sanders' backers like him for issue stances.

Support for Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders essentially held steady compared to an ABC-Post poll from two months ago, but support for Ms. Warren ticked up by 6 points.

Other Democrats have been loath to directly criticise the well-liked Biden. She does particularly well among Bernie Sanders' supporters: 45% name her as their second choice.

More news: Sri Lankans opt out of Pakistan tour over security fears

But when Rendell co-hosted a fundraiser for Joe Biden this spring, the Warren campaign derided the affair as "a swanky private fund-raiser for wealthy donors". Most of the nine other candidates will make the former vice president the centerpiece of their debate strategy, hoping to make gains at his expense.

As expected, Biden is wedged in between Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, a liberal sandwich with a moderate filling.

But that is the point: For now, almost two-thirds of Democrats support one of the three leaders. About 29 percent of respondents chose him, versus 26 percent choosing Sanders and 17 percent choosing Warren. This is an indication of the substantial overlap in support between these two candidates at the progressive end of the range of Democratic candidates.

When voters see the side-by-side comparison between Biden and Warren they will start to move to the MA senator.

In another question, asked to select every candidate they're thinking about supporting, 61 percent of respondents selected Warren, 50 percent selected Sanders, 48 percent selected Biden, 33 percent selected South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and 30 percent selected Sen. Twenty-nine percent of people who were backing Harris in July have switched to the Massachusetts Democrat. We have already seen this kind of movement, evident when we recontacted voters we polled in July. Kamala Harris and Massachusetts Sen. Among these voters, 42% have since switched their first choice to Warren.

Warren and Sanders were also tied in a HarrisX poll conducted from September 2 to 5. Warren continues to climb in the polls, picking up momentum and support.